Each month, we join the economic insights webinar hosted by Dr. Marci Rossell, Chief Economist for Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. One of the great benefits of being part of the LeadingRE network is access to this kind of timely, high-level economic insight. Real estate does not happen in a vacuum. Interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence, global markets, and shifting buyer behavior all play a role in the decisions people make. Staying connected to this information helps us better advise our clients, anticipate changes, and bring a broader perspective to the local Bahamas market.
Here is a recap from her latest webinar:
May 15, 2026
1. A “Selective Squeeze” Is Shaping the Economy
Dr. Rossell described the current U.S. and global environment as a “selective squeeze,” with uneven impacts across the economy. Two key forces are driving this dynamic: higher oil and gas prices and the growing impact of AI on labor markets, contributing to slower hiring.
Rising energy costs continue to affect sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, while today’s more service- and technology-driven economy leaves some workers less directly affected. At the same time, the U.S.’s role as a net oil producer means some regions are benefiting from higher prices.
As a result, economic conditions vary widely: younger workers and those in energy-dependent regions are feeling more strain, while others are seeing fewer direct impacts.
2. Inflation Climbs, Adding Pressure on Consumers
Dr. Rossell noted that inflation has risen quickly from near the Fed’s 2% target to roughly 3.8%, driven largely by higher oil prices. These increases are spreading beyond energy, with core inflation also rising.
The impact is being felt primarily by consumers, particularly those with lower incomes or higher debt levels, Dr. Rossell said. However, employment conditions remain relatively stable, with the current environment showing up more in rising costs than in job losses.
3. Housing Market: Higher Costs and Varied Buyer Activity
Rising energy prices are increasing construction costs, with fuel surcharges and higher material expenses pushing up the cost of building new homes. This is limiting how quickly supply can expand and keeping prices elevated.
These pressures are most pronounced for first-time buyers, as new construction is often farther from work, adding commuting and overall costs. US Mortgage rates have also risen, adding to affordability pressures. Dr. Rossell noted that buyer activity varies by financial position: buyers with significant home equity and strong investment gains remain active, while more cost-sensitive buyers are adjusting to higher expenses.
4. AI Is Driving Productivity and Shifting Work
Dr. Rossell said AI is boosting productivity, with U.S. growth rising from about 1.8% to 2.8%, supporting strong economic and market performance and increasing the economy’s long-term growth potential. As routine tasks become more automated, work is shifting toward areas centered on trust, verification, and relationships, making human-centered skills more valuable.
Dr. Rossell noted that while there are concerns about an AI bubble, current growth is supported by real, rapidly expanding revenue and strong profitability, making clear this is not speculative but a structural shift reshaping productivity and business operations.
5. Oil Prices Continue to Impact the Global Outlook
Oil prices have risen from about $60 to $100 per barrel, and that increase is a critical factor shaping the global economy. Some countries, including the U.S. and China, are releasing strategic reserves to help stabilize prices, but these are temporary measures and cannot be sustained indefinitely, Dr. Rossell said.
Dr. Rossell noted that even if current conflicts were resolved quickly, it would still take six to eight months for oil markets to normalize. The longer higher prices persist, the more pressure they place on major oil-importing economies such as China, Japan, and India. As a result, energy prices will continue to play a central role in influencing global economic conditions in the months ahead.
Contact Us
Have questions about how these economic shifts could impact your real estate plans in The Bahamas? Reach out to our team. We are happy to walk you through what these trends may mean for buyers, sellers, landlords, tenants, and investors in our local market. Because economic headlines are one thing. Knowing what they mean for your next move is where the real value begins.
Call us: 242.396.0000
Email us: [email protected]
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